Accusing countries of harboring secret weapons programs is SOOOO 2003, but, as tweed is to fashion, some global security fads never truly go out of style.
He concludes that, yes, Iran very, very likely has a nuclear weapons program. For him, the "smoking gun" ("smoking mushroom cloud" anyone? -- or did Bush ruin that metaphor?) are Iran's on-going medium-range and intermediate-range ballistic missile programs. Since Iran doesn't have the guidance technology to make such weapons useful in a conventional strike, the existence of these programs only makes sense if they are the REAL THING.